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V-Lab

Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

35.99%

increased by 0.11%

1 Week

36.22%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

37.07%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0326
2.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9905
60.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.9652
0.00
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1219
2.86***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days