V-Lab
Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
35.99%
1 Week
36.22%
1 Month
37.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0326 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 60.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.9652 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1219 | 2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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