V-Lab
Saudi Arabian Coop Insurance APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
35.43%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Week
36.06%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Month
38.02%
increased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2007 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 40% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1732 | 13.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0910 | 27.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8853 | 206.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1063 | 5.83*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5709 | 26.39*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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