V-Lab
Saudi Arabian Coop Insurance Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
32.07%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
33.29%
increased by 1.47%
1 Month
35.25%
increased by 3.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2007 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4769 | 7.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 6.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7423 | 18.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2071 | -1.62 |
| γ2 | 0.4451 | 2.11** |
| γ3 | -0.4389 | -2.82*** |
| γ4 | 0.3889 | 2.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.3624 | -2.33** |
| γ6 | 0.2620 | 1.48 |
| γ7 | -0.0754 | -0.48 |
| γ8 | -0.0664 | -0.56 |
| γ9 | 0.1548 | 1.35 |
| γ10 | -0.1595 | -1.78* |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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