V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
127.10%
1 Week
121.44%
1 Month
107.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 165% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.41 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1401 | 8.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7908 | 33.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3325 | -6.15*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4120 | 5.25*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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