V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
76.18%
1 Week
78.68%
1 Month
84.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 1.32 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.51 |
| αARCH | 0.1496 | 2.40** |
| βGARCH | 0.7725 | 8.51*** |
| γleverage | -0.2517 | -1.41 |
| δpower | 1.3217 | 1.21 |
0.898
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1496 | 2.40** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7725 | 8.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2517 | -1.41 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3217 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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