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V-Lab

Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

46.40%

increased by 5.23%

1 Week

49.09%

increased by 7.92%

1 Month

54.77%

increased by 13.60%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:10 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7147
2.95***
αARCH0.2413
3.16***
βGARCH0.6684
5.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-10.0943
-1.81*

0.910

Persistence

7d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7147
2.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2413
3.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6684
5.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-10.0943
-1.81*

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days