Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
46.40%
increased by 5.23%
1 Week
49.09%
increased by 7.92%
1 Month
54.77%
increased by 13.60%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7147 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.2413 | 3.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6684 | 5.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -10.0943 | -1.81* |
0.910
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7147 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2413 | 3.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6684 | 5.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -10.0943 | -1.81* |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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