V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
134.57%
increased by 6.12%
1 Week
136.44%
increased by 7.99%
1 Month
141.19%
increased by 12.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9359 | 7.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1967 | 2.56** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7342 | 5.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 7.6245 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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