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V-Lab

Ashika Global Securities Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

73.55%

decreased by 3.58%

1 Week

76.13%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

85.68%

increased by 8.55%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3492
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3413
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6587
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-9.7272
γ238.4621
γ3-87.3601
γ4149.4781
γ5-189.4238
γ6177.9816
γ7-122.1516
γ860.4189
γ9-25.7717

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days