V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
73.55%
decreased by 3.58%
1 Week
76.13%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
85.68%
increased by 8.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3492 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3413 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6587 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -9.7272 | |
| γ2 | 38.4621 | |
| γ3 | -87.3601 | |
| γ4 | 149.4781 | |
| γ5 | -189.4238 | |
| γ6 | 177.9816 | |
| γ7 | -122.1516 | |
| γ8 | 60.4189 | |
| γ9 | -25.7717 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
Other Ashika Global Securities Ltd Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities