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V-Lab

Ashika Global Securities Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

68.54%

decreased by 4.45%

1 Week

68.98%

decreased by 4.01%

1 Month

70.70%

decreased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 211 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1647
4.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1319
27.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8649
150.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3688
8.21***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

211 days