V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
68.54%
decreased by 4.45%
1 Week
68.98%
decreased by 4.01%
1 Month
70.70%
decreased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 211 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1647 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1319 | 27.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8649 | 150.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3688 | 8.21*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
211 days
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