V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
71.08%
decreased by 4.33%
1 Week
70.55%
decreased by 4.86%
1 Month
68.53%
decreased by 6.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.0806 | 0.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3150 | 1.71* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6776 | 64.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 7.3667 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | 15.9523 | 0.32 |
| γ3 | -80.1679 | -4.84*** |
| γ4 | 145.1800 | 21.21*** |
| γ5 | -175.9548 | -31.20*** |
| γ6 | 149.0597 | 15.15*** |
| γ7 | -98.8372 | -7.17*** |
| γ8 | 57.5019 | 3.89*** |
| γ9 | -26.2907 | -1.37 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
Other Ashika Global Securities Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities