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V-Lab

Ashika Global Securities Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

71.08%

decreased by 4.33%

1 Week

70.55%

decreased by 4.86%

1 Month

68.53%

decreased by 6.88%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.0806
0.45
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3150
1.71*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6776
64.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ17.3667
0.19
γ215.9523
0.32
γ3-80.1679
-4.84***
γ4145.1800
21.21***
γ5-175.9548
-31.20***
γ6149.0597
15.15***
γ7-98.8372
-7.17***
γ857.5019
3.89***
γ9-26.2907
-1.37

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days