V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
31.17%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Week
32.38%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
36.74%
increased by 4.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 215 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~215 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1654 | 1.02 |
| αARCH | 0.0814 | 2.33** |
| βGARCH | 0.8768 | 36.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.0773 | 1.15 |
0.997
Persistence215d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1654 | 1.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0814 | 2.33** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8768 | 36.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0773 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
215 days
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