V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
65.37%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
65.83%
increased by 1.54%
1 Month
67.62%
increased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 277 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 96% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1631 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0805 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8782 | 147.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0776 | 4.57*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
277 days
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