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Ashika Global Securities Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

31.17%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Week

32.38%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

36.74%

increased by 4.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 215 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~215 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1654
1.02
αARCH0.0814
2.33**
βGARCH0.8768
36.54***
γleverage0.0773
1.15

0.997

Persistence

215d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1654
1.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0814
2.33**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8768
36.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0773
1.15

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

215 days