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V-Lab

Ashika Global Securities Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

51.65%

decreased by 1.72%

1 Week

62.37%

increased by 9.00%

1 Month

94.98%

increased by 41.61%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1582
18.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4864
6.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0076
-0.14
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.8525
0.11
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8307
5.22***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.641

Half-life:

2 days