V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
51.65%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Week
62.37%
increased by 9.00%
1 Month
94.98%
increased by 41.61%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1582 | 18.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4864 | 6.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0076 | -0.14 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.8525 | 0.11 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8307 | 5.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.641
Half-life:
2 days
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