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V-Lab

Ashika Global Securities Ltd GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

72.19%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Week

72.46%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Month

73.50%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1744
4.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1251
26.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8702
140.83***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

149 days