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V-Lab

Ashika Global Securities Ltd MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

58.79%

decreased by 1.51%

1 Week

59.23%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Month

60.97%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1034
8.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1756
26.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8244
170.79***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-