V-Lab
NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.93%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
28.09%
increased by 1.32%
1 Month
32.27%
increased by 5.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 11:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 7, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 307 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1336 | 10.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1253 | 26.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8725 | 236.77*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
307 days
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