V-Lab
NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.18%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
29.70%
increased by 2.64%
1 Month
33.79%
increased by 6.73%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.1714 | 4.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5291 | 8.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.0690 | 1.04 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.7953 | 0.70 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2432 | 0.85 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6558 | 1.60 |
0.735
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1714 | 4.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5291 | 8.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0690 | 1.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7953 | 0.70 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2432 | 0.85 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6558 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.735
Half-life:
2 days
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