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V-Lab
V-Lab

NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

26.18%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

29.70%

increased by 2.64%

1 Month

33.79%

increased by 6.73%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow96
αARCH0.1714
4.06***
βGARCH0.5291
8.25***
γleverage0.0690
1.04
λ₁tau intercept0.7953
0.70
λ₂forecast adj.0.2432
0.85
λ₃tau persistence0.6558
1.60

0.735

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1714
4.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5291
8.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0690
1.04
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7953
0.70
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2432
0.85
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6558
1.60

Persistence:

0.735

Half-life:

2 days