V-Lab
NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
38.89%
decreased by 1.64%
1 Week
39.88%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
43.31%
increased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.9440 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0996 | 67.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9856 | 305.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6409 | 64.16*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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