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V-Lab

NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

29.51%

decreased by 2.64%

1 Week

31.07%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Month

36.20%

increased by 4.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 2.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst16.7589
1.07
αARCH0.0994
16.85***
βGARCH0.9857
77.29***
νDF2.6486
15.97***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.7589
1.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0994
16.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
77.29***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6486
15.97***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days