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V-Lab

NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

38.89%

decreased by 1.64%

1 Week

39.88%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

43.31%

increased by 2.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.9440
4.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0996
67.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9856
305.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6409
64.16***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days