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V-Lab
V-Lab

NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

39.09%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

44.33%

increased by 4.82%

1 Month

52.28%

increased by 12.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5540
3.21***
αARCH0.1802
5.89***
βGARCH0.6784
16.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0100
-0.10
γ20.0730
0.56
γ3-0.1849
-2.70***
γ40.3339
4.46***
γ5-0.3739
-4.12***
γ60.1539
1.59
γ70.1250
1.61
γ8-0.1826
-3.68***

0.859

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5540
3.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1802
5.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6784
16.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0100
-0.10
γ20.0730
0.56
γ3-0.1849
-2.70***
γ40.3339
4.46***
γ5-0.3739
-4.12***
γ60.1539
1.59
γ70.1250
1.61
γ8-0.1826
-3.68***

Persistence:

0.859

Half-life:

5 days