V-Lab
NCD Co Ltd/Shinagawa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.09%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
44.33%
increased by 4.82%
1 Month
52.28%
increased by 12.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5540 | 3.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.1802 | 5.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6784 | 16.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0100 | -0.10 |
| γ2 | 0.0730 | 0.56 |
| γ3 | -0.1849 | -2.70*** |
| γ4 | 0.3339 | 4.46*** |
| γ5 | -0.3739 | -4.12*** |
| γ6 | 0.1539 | 1.59 |
| γ7 | 0.1250 | 1.61 |
| γ8 | -0.1826 | -3.68*** |
0.859
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5540 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1802 | 5.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6784 | 16.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0100 | -0.10 |
| γ2 | 0.0730 | 0.56 |
| γ3 | -0.1849 | -2.70*** |
| γ4 | 0.3339 | 4.46*** |
| γ5 | -0.3739 | -4.12*** |
| γ6 | 0.1539 | 1.59 |
| γ7 | 0.1250 | 1.61 |
| γ8 | -0.1826 | -3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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