Bg T&A Co MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
28.05%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Week
32.59%
increased by 3.25%
1 Month
44.29%
increased by 14.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6619 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.2963 | 9.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6723 | 25.18*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6619 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2963 | 9.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6723 | 25.18*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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