Bg T&A Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
51.25%
increased by 10.87%
1 Week
51.95%
increased by 11.57%
1 Month
54.33%
increased by 13.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-lifev = 3.05 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 18.6245 | 0.80 |
| αscore | 0.1055 | 8.69*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9805 | 41.12*** |
| νDF | 3.0547 | 5.44*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 18.6245 | 0.80 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1055 | 8.69*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9805 | 41.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0547 | 5.44*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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