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Bg T&A Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

51.25%

increased by 10.87%

1 Week

51.95%

increased by 11.57%

1 Month

54.33%

increased by 13.95%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bg T&A Co GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-lifev = 3.05 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run18.6245
0.80
αscore0.1055
8.69***
βpersistence0.9805
41.12***
νDF3.0547
5.44***

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

18.6245
0.80
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1055
8.69***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9805
41.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0547
5.44***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days