V-Lab
Bg T&A Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
64.36%
increased by 1.83%
1 Week
64.54%
increased by 2.01%
1 Month
65.19%
increased by 2.66%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.0261 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1031 | 35.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9814 | 169.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0362 | 22.27*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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