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Bg T&A Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

31.90%

decreased by 2.55%

1 Week

34.06%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

40.76%

increased by 6.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bg T&A Co GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-lifev = 3.05 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst18.8146
0.79
αARCH0.1057
8.71***
βGARCH0.9805
41.05***
νDF3.0489
5.48***

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

18.8146
0.79
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1057
8.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9805
41.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0489
5.48***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days