V-Lab
Bg T&A Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
50.17%
increased by 2.55%
1 Week
54.72%
increased by 7.10%
1 Month
62.81%
increased by 15.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 27% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2129 | 17.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6273 | 41.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0575 | 3.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0803 | 3.47*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0230 | 4.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9718 | 142.27*** |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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