V-Lab
Bg T&A Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
42.43%
increased by 1.03%
1 Week
43.52%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
45.89%
increased by 4.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8317 | 5.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1874 | 5.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7192 | 17.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2695 | -1.67* |
| γ2 | 0.1614 | 0.64 |
| γ3 | 0.4072 | 1.88* |
| γ4 | -0.4449 | -1.89* |
| γ5 | -0.0425 | -0.21 |
| γ6 | 0.5320 | 3.11*** |
| γ7 | -0.7080 | -3.17*** |
| γ8 | 0.6507 | 2.47** |
| γ9 | -0.3753 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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