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V-Lab

Bg T&A Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

42.43%

increased by 1.03%

1 Week

43.52%

increased by 2.12%

1 Month

45.89%

increased by 4.49%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bg T&A Co S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8317
5.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1874
5.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7192
17.79***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.2695
-1.67*
γ20.1614
0.64
γ30.4072
1.88*
γ4-0.4449
-1.89*
γ5-0.0425
-0.21
γ60.5320
3.11***
γ7-0.7080
-3.17***
γ80.6507
2.47**
γ9-0.3753
-1.89*

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days