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Bg T&A Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

72.75%

increased by 39.93%

1 Week

68.73%

increased by 35.91%

1 Month

58.87%

increased by 26.05%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bg T&A Co S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8327
5.65***
αARCH0.1912
6.01***
βGARCH0.7113
17.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.2673
-1.71*
γ20.1632
0.68
γ30.4062
1.97**
γ4-0.4708
-2.09**
γ50.0129
0.07
γ60.4772
3.03***
γ7-0.6807
-3.54***
γ80.6537
2.78***
γ9-0.3889
-2.16**

0.903

Persistence

7d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8327
5.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1912
6.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7113
17.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.2673
-1.71*
γ20.1632
0.68
γ30.4062
1.97**
γ4-0.4708
-2.09**
γ50.0129
0.07
γ60.4772
3.03***
γ7-0.6807
-3.54***
γ80.6537
2.78***
γ9-0.3889
-2.16**

Persistence:

0.903

Half-life:

7 days