Bg T&A Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
72.75%
increased by 39.93%
1 Week
68.73%
increased by 35.91%
1 Month
58.87%
increased by 26.05%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8327 | 5.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1912 | 6.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7113 | 17.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2673 | -1.71* |
| γ2 | 0.1632 | 0.68 |
| γ3 | 0.4062 | 1.97** |
| γ4 | -0.4708 | -2.09** |
| γ5 | 0.0129 | 0.07 |
| γ6 | 0.4772 | 3.03*** |
| γ7 | -0.6807 | -3.54*** |
| γ8 | 0.6537 | 2.78*** |
| γ9 | -0.3889 | -2.16** |
0.903
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8327 | 5.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1912 | 6.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7113 | 17.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2673 | -1.71* |
| γ2 | 0.1632 | 0.68 |
| γ3 | 0.4062 | 1.97** |
| γ4 | -0.4708 | -2.09** |
| γ5 | 0.0129 | 0.07 |
| γ6 | 0.4772 | 3.03*** |
| γ7 | -0.6807 | -3.54*** |
| γ8 | 0.6537 | 2.78*** |
| γ9 | -0.3889 | -2.16** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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