Bg T&A Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
73.36%
increased by 38.11%
1 Week
73.81%
increased by 38.56%
1 Month
75.31%
increased by 40.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6595 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1882 | 5.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7731 | 23.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.0282 | 0.43 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6595 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1882 | 5.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7731 | 23.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0282 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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