V-Lab
Union Bank of the Philippines MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
24.43%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
24.61%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
25.32%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 6.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 31.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9197 | 310.09*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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