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V-Lab

Union Bank of the Philippines GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

22.60%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Week

23.06%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

24.83%

increased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Union Bank of the Philippines GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 1992 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0419
19.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1381
19.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8634
278.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0030
-0.26

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days