V-Lab
Union Bank of the Philippines GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22.60%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
23.06%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
24.83%
increased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1992 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0419 | 19.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1381 | 19.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8634 | 278.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0030 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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