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Ashika Global Securities Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

20.26%

decreased by 2.33%

1 Week

20.24%

decreased by 2.35%

1 Month

20.16%

decreased by 2.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 6.87 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
αARCH0.1481
31.89***
βGARCH0.9990
432.09***
νDF6.8669
20.46***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1481
31.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
432.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8669
20.46***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days