V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
20.26%
1 Week
20.24%
1 Month
20.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | |
| αARCH | 0.1481 | 31.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 432.09*** |
| νDF | 6.8669 | 20.46*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1481 | 31.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 432.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8669 | 20.46*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
Other Ashika Global Securities Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities