V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
55.40%
1 Week
54.72%
1 Month
52.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1030 | 12.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1649 | 28.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8351 | 123.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0868 | -5.41*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2063 | 25.30*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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