V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
19.42%
increased by 0.87%
1 Week
21.20%
increased by 2.65%
1 Month
25.95%
increased by 7.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 1.80 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1936 | 16.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1778 | 37.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7885 | 175.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8042 | 26.34*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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