V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.52%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
21.39%
increased by 1.93%
1 Month
26.39%
increased by 6.93%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2169 | 25.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1783 | 21.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7837 | 172.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0019 | -0.15 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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