V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.33%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
25.73%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
27.18%
increased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.5755 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0629 | 39.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9898 | 335.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2775 | 19.58*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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