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Lena Lighting SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

25.33%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

25.73%

increased by 0.41%

1 Month

27.18%

increased by 1.86%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Lena Lighting SA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 6, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.5755
3.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0629
39.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9898
335.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2775
19.58***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days