V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
18.71%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
18.34%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
17.90%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9654 | 9.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1417 | 6.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6208 | 10.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0389 | -4.14*** |
| γ2 | 0.0630 | 4.40*** |
| γ3 | -0.0526 | -3.80*** |
Persistence:
0.762
Half-life:
3 days
Other Lena Lighting SA Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities