Skip to main content
V-Lab

Lena Lighting SA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

18.71%

increased by 0.46%

1 Week

18.34%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

17.90%

decreased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Lena Lighting SA SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9654
9.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1417
6.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6208
10.37***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0389
-4.14***
γ20.0630
4.40***
γ3-0.0526
-3.80***

Persistence:

0.762

Half-life:

3 days