Skip to main content
V-Lab

Lena Lighting SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

20.89%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Week

20.92%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Month

20.90%

decreased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Lena Lighting SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 6, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 38% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1203
17.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6236
33.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0452
4.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0005
0.13
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0047
1.57
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9950
252.93***

Persistence:

0.766

Half-life:

3 days