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V-Lab

Lena Lighting SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

16.88%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

18.33%

increased by 1.06%

1 Month

19.83%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Lena Lighting SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 38% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1198
17.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6229
33.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0459
4.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0004
0.10
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0047
1.58
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9950
253.44***

Persistence:

0.766

Half-life:

3 days