V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.37%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
20.50%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
20.64%
decreased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 37% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1201 | 17.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6241 | 33.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0448 | 4.55*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0005 | 0.12 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0047 | 1.58 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9950 | 253.12*** |
Persistence:
0.767
Half-life:
3 days
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