V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.84%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
23.15%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
24.25%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0481 | 10.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0307 | 7.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9573 | 290.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0046 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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