V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.19%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
23.49%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
24.58%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0493 | 10.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0308 | 7.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9569 | 287.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0048 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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