V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22.22%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
22.53%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
23.68%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0469 | 10.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 7.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9578 | 294.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0044 | 0.87 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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