V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.71%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
23.02%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
24.16%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0486 | 10.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0334 | 12.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9568 | 292.61*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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