V-Lab
Lena Lighting SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.74%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
19.40%
increased by 1.33%
1 Month
20.99%
increased by 2.92%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9794 | 8.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1489 | 6.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5925 | 9.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0341 | -1.59 |
| γ2 | 0.0002 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.0901 | 2.93*** |
| γ4 | -0.0989 | -3.34*** |
| γ5 | 0.0642 | 3.05*** |
Persistence:
0.741
Half-life:
2 days
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