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V-Lab

Lena Lighting SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

17.74%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

19.40%

increased by 1.33%

1 Month

20.99%

increased by 2.92%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:12 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Lena Lighting SA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 6, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9794
8.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1489
6.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5925
9.61***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0341
-1.59
γ20.0002
0.01
γ30.0901
2.93***
γ4-0.0989
-3.34***
γ50.0642
3.05***

Persistence:

0.741

Half-life:

2 days