V-Lab
Kinik Co Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
48.75%
1 Week
47.92%
1 Month
45.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 25, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. The volatility power δ = 1.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0980 | 4.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.1627 | 12.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8267 | 61.93*** |
| γleverage | -0.0341 | -1.04 |
| δpower | 1.5804 | 6.60*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0980 | 4.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1627 | 12.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8267 | 61.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0341 | -1.04 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5804 | 6.60*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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