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Kinik Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

93.24%

increased by 12.94%

1 Week

92.84%

increased by 12.54%

1 Month

91.33%

increased by 11.03%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Kinik Co GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 25, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 daysv = 3.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst14.4112
0.87
αARCH0.0842
18.01***
βGARCH0.9927
123.44***
νDF3.1064
10.94***

0.993

Persistence

95d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.4112
0.87
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0842
18.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9927
123.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1064
10.94***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

95 days