V-Lab
Kinik Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
93.24%
1 Week
92.84%
1 Month
91.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 25, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 14.4112 | 0.87 |
| αARCH | 0.0842 | 18.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9927 | 123.44*** |
| νDF | 3.1064 | 10.94*** |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.4112 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 18.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 123.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1064 | 10.94*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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