V-Lab
Kinik Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
75.87%
increased by 7.95%
1 Week
75.42%
increased by 7.50%
1 Month
73.68%
increased by 5.76%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 25, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~76 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0697 | 3.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0648 | 4.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9262 | 99.19*** |
| γleverage | -0.0002 | -0.01 |
0.991
Persistence76d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0697 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0648 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9262 | 99.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0002 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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