V-Lab
Kinik Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
50.78%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
51.79%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
53.86%
increased by 2.75%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 25, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1063 | 6.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1273 | 7.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7657 | 25.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0240 | -0.96 |
| γ2 | 0.0196 | 0.52 |
| γ3 | 0.0086 | 0.30 |
| γ4 | 0.0405 | 1.71* |
| γ5 | -0.0798 | -5.13*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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