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V-Lab

Kinik Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

50.78%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

51.79%

increased by 0.68%

1 Month

53.86%

increased by 2.75%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Kinik Co S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 25, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1063
6.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1273
7.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7657
25.57***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0240
-0.96
γ20.0196
0.52
γ30.0086
0.30
γ40.0405
1.71*
γ5-0.0798
-5.13***

Persistence:

0.893

Half-life:

6 days