V-Lab
Kinik Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
51.94%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
54.04%
increased by 2.30%
1 Month
57.14%
increased by 5.40%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 25, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 31% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1134 | 25.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7082 | 78.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0351 | 5.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6453 | 4.99*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9085 | 12.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.839
Half-life:
4 days
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