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V-Lab

Japan Petroleum Ex Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

39.43%

increased by 0.66%

1 Week

35.19%

decreased by 3.58%

1 Month

27.51%

decreased by 11.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japan Petroleum Ex APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.60 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifeδ = 0.60 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1325
3.79***
αARCH0.2717
14.95***
βGARCH0.6651
26.12***
γleverage-0.0317
-1.13
δpower0.6008
2.18**

0.885

Persistence

6d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1325
3.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2717
14.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6651
26.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0317
-1.13
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6008
2.18**

Persistence:

0.885

Half-life:

6 days