V-Lab
Japan Petroleum Ex Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
39.43%
1 Week
35.19%
1 Month
27.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.60 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1325 | 3.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.2717 | 14.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6651 | 26.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0317 | -1.13 |
| δpower | 0.6008 | 2.18** |
0.885
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1325 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2717 | 14.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6651 | 26.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0317 | -1.13 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6008 | 2.18** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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