V-Lab
Japan Petroleum Ex GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
29.85%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
30.67%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
32.78%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3247 | 5.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0841 | 4.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8335 | 39.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.0404 | 1.02 |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3247 | 5.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0841 | 4.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8335 | 39.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0404 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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