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V-Lab

Japan Petroleum Ex Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

29.88%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

30.71%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

32.88%

increased by 2.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japan Petroleum Ex S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9803
14.25***
αARCH0.1042
7.43***
βGARCH0.8354
39.37***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.25

0.940

Persistence

11d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9803
14.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1042
7.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8354
39.37***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.25

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days