V-Lab
Japan Petroleum Ex MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
29.77%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
31.36%
increased by 1.45%
1 Month
33.17%
increased by 3.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 96% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0918 | 4.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6487 | 13.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0884 | 2.87*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0938 | 2.18** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0366 | 2.88*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9449 | 48.76*** |
0.785
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0918 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6487 | 13.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0884 | 2.87*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0938 | 2.18** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0366 | 2.88*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9449 | 48.76*** |
Persistence:
0.785
Half-life:
3 days
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