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V-Lab

Japan Petroleum Ex MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

29.77%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

31.36%

increased by 1.45%

1 Month

33.17%

increased by 3.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japan Petroleum Ex MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 96% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0918
4.50***
βGARCH0.6487
13.63***
γleverage0.0884
2.87***
λ₁tau intercept0.0938
2.18**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0366
2.88***
λ₃tau persistence0.9449
48.76***

0.785

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0918
4.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6487
13.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0884
2.87***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0938
2.18**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0366
2.88***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9449
48.76***

Persistence:

0.785

Half-life:

3 days