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Japan Petroleum Ex GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

31.61%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

32.01%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

33.22%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japan Petroleum Ex GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 5.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.3004
2.47**
αARCH0.0786
5.09***
βGARCH0.9606
52.85***
νDF5.2104
1.51

0.961

Persistence

17d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.3004
2.47**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0786
5.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9606
52.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.2104
1.51

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days