V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
65.18%
1 Week
67.18%
1 Month
72.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.82 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.1793 | 4.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7840 | 15.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0589 | 0.74 |
| δpower | 1.8165 | 3.94*** |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1793 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7840 | 15.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0589 | 0.74 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8165 | 3.94*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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