V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
64.75%
increased by 1.34%
1 Week
65.21%
increased by 1.80%
1 Month
66.95%
increased by 3.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 93% more than positive returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1590 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1174 | 19.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8792 | 106.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1705 | 11.09*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9144 | 12.81*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
173 days
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