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V-Lab

Ashika Global Securities Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

64.75%

increased by 1.34%

1 Week

65.21%

increased by 1.80%

1 Month

66.95%

increased by 3.54%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 93% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1590
3.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1174
19.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8792
106.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1705
11.09***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9144
12.81***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

173 days