V-Lab
Spenda Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
315.93%
1 Week
315.87%
1 Month
315.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1370 trading days (~5.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.69 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6726 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0286 | 2.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9607 | 90.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.0428 | 0.50 |
| δpower | 2.6886 | 7.47*** |
0.999
Persistence1370d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6726 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0286 | 2.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9607 | 90.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0428 | 0.50 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.6886 | 7.47*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1370 days
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