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V-Lab
V-Lab

Spenda Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

315.93%

decreased by 3.53%

1 Week

315.87%

decreased by 3.59%

1 Month

315.59%

decreased by 3.87%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Spenda Ltd APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1370 trading days (~5.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.69 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1370 daysδ = 2.69 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6726
1.19
αARCH0.0286
2.62***
βGARCH0.9607
90.76***
γleverage0.0428
0.50
δpower2.6886
7.47***

0.999

Persistence

1370d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6726
1.19
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0286
2.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9607
90.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0428
0.50
δ

power

Transformation power

2.6886
7.47***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1370 days