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V-Lab

Spenda Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

229.72%

decreased by 10.09%

1 Week

228.42%

decreased by 11.39%

1 Month

224.13%

decreased by 15.68%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Spenda Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1054
4.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0743
7.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8929
42.09***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2183
0.81
γ20.4128
0.90
γ3-1.1376
-2.99***
γ41.1036
3.57***
γ5-1.6610
-4.41***
γ61.8520
3.69***
γ7-1.2678
-2.06**
γ80.8914
1.70*
γ9-0.4254
-1.21
γ10-0.1205
-0.51

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days