V-Lab
Spenda Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
229.72%
decreased by 10.09%
1 Week
228.42%
decreased by 11.39%
1 Month
224.13%
decreased by 15.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1054 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0743 | 7.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8929 | 42.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2183 | 0.81 |
| γ2 | 0.4128 | 0.90 |
| γ3 | -1.1376 | -2.99*** |
| γ4 | 1.1036 | 3.57*** |
| γ5 | -1.6610 | -4.41*** |
| γ6 | 1.8520 | 3.69*** |
| γ7 | -1.2678 | -2.06** |
| γ8 | 0.8914 | 1.70* |
| γ9 | -0.4254 | -1.21 |
| γ10 | -0.1205 | -0.51 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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