V-Lab
Spenda Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
244.70%
decreased by 11.03%
1 Week
246.26%
decreased by 9.47%
1 Month
252.07%
decreased by 3.66%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 70% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9063 | 233.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0324 | 4.53*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.9096 | 0.31 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.31 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities