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V-Lab

Spenda Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

289.38%

decreased by 3.49%

1 Week

481.80%

increased by 188.93%

1 Month

7,410.05%

increased by 7,117.18%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Spenda Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0039
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9763
90.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0396
0.01
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0047
0.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2424
0.01
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.48

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-