V-Lab
Spenda Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 3rd, 2026
1 Day
358.63%
decreased by 3.01%
1 Week
358.72%
decreased by 2.92%
1 Month
359.07%
decreased by 2.57%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1245 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0271 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9729 | 96.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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