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V-Lab

Spenda Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 3rd, 2026

1 Day

358.63%

decreased by 3.01%

1 Week

358.72%

decreased by 2.92%

1 Month

359.07%

decreased by 2.57%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Spenda Ltd AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1245
0.78
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0271
1.86*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9729
96.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0001
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days