V-Lab
Leonardo SpA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
31.88%
1 Week
33.63%
1 Month
39.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5096217 trading days (~20223.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.74 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5381 | 1.38 |
| αARCH | 0.1723 | 5.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7603 | 18.77*** |
| γleverage | -0.0182 | -0.60 |
| δpower | 2.7432 | 4.77*** |
1.000
Persistence5096217d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5381 | 1.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1723 | 5.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7603 | 18.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0182 | -0.60 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7432 | 4.77*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5096217 days
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