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V-Lab

Leonardo SpA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

31.88%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

33.63%

increased by 2.14%

1 Month

39.31%

increased by 7.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Leonardo SpA APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 22, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5096217 trading days (~20223.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.74 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~5096217 daysδ = 2.74 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5381
1.38
αARCH0.1723
5.76***
βGARCH0.7603
18.77***
γleverage-0.0182
-0.60
δpower2.7432
4.77***

1.000

Persistence

5096217d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5381
1.38
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1723
5.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7603
18.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0182
-0.60
δ

power

Transformation power

2.7432
4.77***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

5096217 days